Market Predictions Are Far from Accurate!
Predictions by real estate experts make interesting reading, but reality on the ground here in dictates that even the most expert experts lack a key ingredient that would make their ruminations more than educated guesses: local activity. That having been acknowledged, there are many non-local factors that analysts can meaningfully take into account for their projections—some of which are already shaping the early going in 2022. Notably among them are those that are influencing the public’s perception on whether residential real estate will continue on a tear—or begin to lose momentum.
In fact, public perception can be counted among the factors we’re citing:
• Public perception. It takes an iron will (and long experience) to ignore it.
• Foreclosures. Foreclosure activity had all but disappeared as a factor in 2021, but there are reasons to suspect it will return. One mortgage solutions exec quoted in U.S. News & World Report expects “what will feel like a surge of foreclosure and auction activity in 2022.” However, his “feel” is largely due to comparisons with moratorium-governed 2021.
• Hungry house-hunters. The appetite for housing acquisitions should build even as the inventory of available homes continues to fall short of demand. Logic dictates that those before-mentioned foreclosures and auctions may draw more attention from individual buyers, though. That would short-circuit negative market pressure if foreclosure activity does mount.
• Refinancing. Part of the inventory crunch is due to sellers deciding to stay put. homeowners who have secured rock-bottom rates below 3% can’t be blamed for thinking twice about letting go of such comfy mortgage payments. As rates rise (they are expected to do so, although only at a snail’s pace), this factor will strengthen.
Those are all factors that will certainly play into the experts’ projections for 2022—as well as influencing our own real estate activity. When your own real estate activity moves toward the front burner, it’s time to get in touch.
